Assessment of the impact of climate change by using simulation model on tomato production

Shahin M.M. ¹ Khatter.H.A.² Abo Elmaatti .S. ³ Said. A¹

Abstract

The Egyptian processing tomato (Solanum lycopersicon) has a major dominance in the global market but few studies have been conducted using a cropping systems analysis approach for this crop. The overall goal of this project was to evaluate the CropSyst (Cropping Systems Simulation) software with experimental data taken from two field experiments in the summer season of years 2014 and 2015 in Dokki, Giza, Egypt (Lat.: 29°:51':08.33 "N, Long.: 31°:14':24.11"E ) The Experiment included two planting dates (April. 10 and April. 25) three irrigation levels of waters (80% , 100% and 120% of water field capacity), in addition to two cultivars (Super Strain B and Castle Rock). The experiment included 36 experimental plots, 2 planting dates × 3 irrigation levels × 2 cultivars × 3 replicates. The experimental plot area was 20 m² and consisted of 5 rows with 150 cm width and 10 m length; with 30 cm space between plants. The experiment was established as split- split plot. The planting date was in the main plot, whereas the irrigation levels were in sub-plot, the cultivar was distributed in sub-sub-plot. Data analysis was done by an IBM computer, using Excel program for statistical analysis. The LSD among means for all treatments was tested for significance at 5% level. A comparison of yield for the different transplanting dates showed that earlier transplanting date increased yield for both cultivars, while there was a significant higher yield for "Super Strain B" than "Castle Rock". The two summer seasons in 2014 and 2015 gave a significant difference between two transplanting date, with higher plant growth with the first transplanting date and with level irrigation of 120 %. Data of this experiment summer seasons of 2014and 2015 years was used to validate the CropSyst model. The treatments of the validation experiment composed of two tomato cultivars and three irrigation treatments. Climate change scenario A1B were used to assess the consequences of climate change on tomato yield in 2040. The results showed that CropSyst model was able to predict tomato yield with high degree of accuracy for both calibration and validation procedures. The results also indicated that, in general, the yield of both cultivars will be decreased under climate change; however the reduction was lower for "Castle Rock", as compared with "Super Strain B". Yield production increased with 120% of water field capacity and with cultivar "Super Strain B" under the climate change scenario compared with irrigation levels resulted from 80% ,100% of water field capacity. Our results suggested that if we want to reduce yield losses on tomato under climate change conditions and increase water productivity, "Super Strain B" should be cultivated.

Key words

Solanum lycopersicon, cropsyst, crop simulation, calibration, validation, climate change scenario, A1B.